TCG Quant · Guide 4.2

Why serious sealed investors use TCG Quant

Most price sites tell you what a booster box costs today. TCG Quant tells you whether the supply is drying up, how scarce the chase cards really are, and whether the long-term setup is worth your capital. Here is what that looks like.

Supply & Demand Pull Rates Destruction Long-Term Score Pokemon + One Piece

01Price is not the same as opportunity

A booster box at $600 can be a great buy or a trap, and the sticker price will not tell you which. What matters is the direction of supply, the strength of demand, and how much of the print run has already been destroyed by openers chasing hits. TCG Quant tracks those forces across every set we cover, then distills them into signals you can act on.

Here are three sealed products we currently track, pulled straight from the platform:

151

Pokemon · Elite Trainer Box

Market$590.34

MSRP$50.00

LTS: GENERATIONAL NEUTRAL

No strong signal at this time

Destined Rivals

Pokemon · Booster Box

Market$398.30

MSRP$161.64

LTS: STRONG LT BUY SETUP

Rising demand · Supply dropping · Low inventory · Coiling

OP-01 Romance Dawn (Blue)

One Piece · Booster Box

Market$4,960.70

MSRP$120.00

LTS: STRONG LT WATCH

Supply dropping · Low inventory

02Watch supply drain before price moves

Our Supply and Demand overlay layers competitively-priced listings and daily sales volume on top of the price line. When supply falls while demand holds, appreciation usually follows. This is the single view most investors wish they had before a box runs.

Supply & Demand Black Bolt · Elite Trainer Box · Jan 2026 to Aug 2026

Real weekly history. Supply tracks listings priced within 20% of market value, the inventory that must be absorbed before price appreciation typically begins. Watch supply fall as price climbs.

Price Supply Sales Volume

Demand Pressure

Moderate 3.0% Demand Ratio

RELAXEDMODERATETIGHTCRITICAL

Demand Ratio is the share of competitively-priced supply selling each day. Above 5% is tight, above 10% is critical. This is the current live reading for Black Bolt.

03Know the real odds inside the box

The value of a sealed box is driven by what comes out of it. We publish verified pull rates for every set we cover, so you can see the actual odds and expected value per pack instead of guessing. Below is a live example from Astral Radiance.

Pull Rates Astral Radiance · per-box odds

Rare Holo

3.2 / box

VSTAR

1.0 / box

Rainbow Rare

0.5 / box

Ultra Rare

0.4 / box

Secret Rare

0.3 / box

VMAX

0.1 / box

PACK EV

$3.40

RARITY TIERS TRACKED

SOURCE

Verified

04Measure how much of the print run is gone

Every box opened for singles permanently removes sealed supply from the market. Our Destruction metric combines PSA population data with pull rates to estimate how much of a chase card, and by extension the sealed product, has already been cracked. Low surviving supply is the quiet engine behind long-term appreciation.

Destruction · Scarcity Signal chase card survivorship · illustrative

1 / 862

Estimated surviving copies per case opened, after graded population and pull rates are accounted for. The scarcer the survivor, the stronger the floor under sealed price.

05One score that ties it together

The Long-Term Score, or LTS, condenses appreciation history, chase value, and supply dynamics into a single rating so you can scan a whole era at a glance and focus your research where it counts.

GENERATIONAL

Top-tier long-term hold. Iconic set, durable demand, tightening supply.

STRONG LT

Strong long-term setup with favorable supply and demand structure.

MODERATE

Reasonable hold with mixed signals. Worth watching, not backing up the truck.

SIGNAL ONLY

Not enough conviction for a long-term call yet. Trade signals only.